Targeted rounds solve specific policy goals well, but that does not mean they are broad market signals for the average candidate.
A category draw can be highly relevant and still limited
That is not a contradiction. Category-based selection exists to pull in candidates who match a defined need, not to summarize the mood of the full system.
When people forget that, they tend to misread both risk and opportunity.
The emotional trap
Candidates who qualify for a category can over-assume that their pathway will stay generous forever. Candidates outside it can over-assume that the entire system has closed against them.
Neither reaction is especially helpful.
The calmer reading
A category draw is strongest as a planning clue. It tells you where IRCC is still willing to be very specific, and that can be valuable even if it is not your route.
The practical question is whether your profile can credibly fit one of those targeted purposes.